AI Insights Module
Insight Accuracy Dashboard
AI Generated Summary
Of the insights AI surfaced and acted upon in the last 30 days, 89% were verified accurate once real outcomes came in — 247 production models contributed to the 18.4M predictions scored today. One category, churn risk flags, underperformed its calibration target, with predicted confidence running well ahead of realized accuracy. Business impact: $412K in avoided losses attributed to correctly verified insights this month. Recommendation: recalibrate the Churn Prediction v3.2 confidence threshold before its next verification cycle.
Explain This AI Summary
Model
Insight Verification Engine v1.6 — reconciles insight predictions against confirmed real-world outcomes
Data Sources
Churn Prediction v3.2, Revenue Forecasting v2.7, Fraud Detection v4.1, Demand Planning v2.3 outcome logs across 18.4M predictions scored today.
Why 94% confidence
The 89% verified-accuracy figure is drawn from 1,842 human-confirmed outcomes over the trailing 30 days, with a margin of error of ±2.3% at this sample size.
Why Churn Risk Flags underperform
Predicted confidence for churn flags averages 88%, but realized accuracy lands at 76% — a 12-point calibration gap driven by a training window that under-represents recent contract-renewal behavior.
Insights Verified (30d)
1,842
Verified Accurate
89%
Awaiting Verification
36
Underperforming Category
1
Predicted vs. Actual Outcome
Predicted confidence vs. realized accuracy, by insight category · dashed line = perfect calibration
Revenue Forecasts · 97.8%
Churn Risk Flags · 76.2%
Churn Risk Flags — Confusion Matrix
Darker = higher countVerified outcomes for Churn Prediction v3.2 binary flags · last 30 days
| AI Predicted Churn | AI Predicted No Churn |
|---|
78.4%
71.9%
75.0%
79.5%
Insight Accuracy by Category
Verified-accurate rate against confirmed real-world outcomes, trailing 30 days
| Category | Model | Verified | Accuracy | 30d Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Churn Risk Flags | Churn Prediction v3.2 | 318 | 76.2% | -3.1% |
| Revenue Forecasts | Revenue Forecasting v2.7 | 412 | 97.8% | +1.4% |
| Anomaly Alerts | Fraud Detection v4.1 | 96 | 93.5% | +0.8% |
| Demand Predictions | Demand Planning v2.3 | 274 | 91.2% | +0.1% |
| Customer Segments | Customer Segmentation v1.9 | 203 | 95.6% | +2.0% |
| Sentiment Classifications | Sentiment Analysis v1.4 | 539 | 88.9% | -0.6% |
Why Churn Risk Flags Underperform
Churn Prediction v3.2 assigns high confidence scores (avg. 88%) that only hold up 76.2% of the time once verified against actual cancellations and renewals — the widest calibration gap of any tracked category. AI attributes this to two factors: the training window pre-dates a Q2 change in the Enterprise renewal contract terms, and 41% of false-positive churn flags involved accounts that renewed after a manual save-play outreach the model has no visibility into. Recommendation: retrain on the last 90 days of renewal data and feed save-play outcomes back into the feature set.
Verification Queue
36 pendingInsights awaiting human confirmation of their real-world outcome
Churn flag: Meridian Logistics predicted to churn within 14 days
Churn Prediction v3.2 · predicted confidence 91% · reviewer Sarah Chen
Revenue forecast: Q3 Enterprise segment growth of 14.8% flagged for review
Revenue Forecasting v2.7 · predicted confidence 96% · reviewer Marcus Lee
Anomaly alert: unusual transaction pattern on account #ACC-2291
Fraud Detection v4.1 · predicted confidence 84% · reviewer Priya Patel
Demand prediction: SKU-4471 restock volume for next cycle
Demand Planning v2.3 · predicted confidence 88% · reviewer Jordan Kim
Verification Audit Trail